Chỉ số Bong bóng Bất động sản thường niên của ngân hàng đầu tư UBS được xem như một hệ thống cảnh báo sớm, trong đó đánh giá và chấm điểm các thành phố trên toàn cầu dựa trên nguy cơ xảy ra bong bóng bất động sản.
Theo UBS, không dễ để phân biệt bong bóng bất động sản trong thực tế bởi các nhà đầu tư phải đánh giá xem liệu thị trường có phản ánh chính xác những gì sẽ xảy ra trong tương lai hay không.
Dù vậy, vẫn có một số dấu hiệu cần lưu ý. Trong đó, một trong những dấu hiệu phổ biến nhất là sự chênh lệch giữa thu nhập và tiền thuê nhà của người dân địa phương. Ngoài ra, sự mất cân đối trong nền kinh tế thực, như hoạt động xây dựng và cho vay quá mức cũng có thể cảnh báo về một bong bóng địa ốc đang được hình thành.
Theo Chỉ số Bong bóng Bất động sản năm 2021 của UBS, châu Âu là nơi có nhiều thành phố đang đứng trước nguy cơ bong bóng địa ốc lớn, trong dẫn đầu là Frankfurt (Đức). Trung tâm tài chính của Đức chứng kiến giá nhà thực tế tăng bình quân 10% mỗi năm kể từ năm 2016 – cao nhất trong tất cả thành phố được đánh giá.
Tại châu Á, bất chấp ảnh hưởng của dịch bệnh và các vấn đề chính trị, Hồng Kông (Trung Quốc), vẫn giữ vị trí thứ hai trong danh sách năm nay.
Ở chiều ngược lại, Dubai (Các tiểu vương quốc Ả Rập thống nhất) là thành phố duy nhất có số điểm âm trong danh sách, được xếp vào nhóm “giá quá thấp”. Giá nhà ở tại Dubai có xu hướng giảm trong 6 năm qua và hiện ở mức thấp hơn gần 40% so với năm 2014.
Dưới đây là biểu đồ thể hiện tình trạng thị trường bất động sản tại các thành phố trên toàn cầu, theo Visual Capitalist.
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