Xe điện sẽ chiếm 31% lượng xe toàn cầu năm 2050


Cơ quan này cũng dự đoán xe LDV động cơ đốt trong toàn cầu sẽ đạt đỉnh vào năm 2038 do doanh số bán xe điện tăng trưởng đáng kể.

EIA định nghĩa LDV là các loại “ô tô chở khách và xe tải có tổng trọng lượng toàn bộ xe từ 3.855 kg trở xuống”. EIA cũng định nghĩa xe điện là bất kỳ LDV nào có phích cắm sạc. Định nghĩa đó bao gồm cả xe chạy điện và xe điện hybrid cắm điện.

Sau đó, EIA phân chia các dự báo của mình giữa các nước thuộc Tổ chức Hợp tác và Phát triển Kinh tế (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development – OECD) và các nước không thuộc OECD.

Tổ chức Hợp tác và Phát triển Kinh tế (OECD) có trụ sở tại Paris là một tổ chức quốc tế thúc đẩy các chính sách nhằm nâng cao phúc lợi kinh tế và xã hội của người dân trên toàn thế giới.

38 thành viên của OECD: Áo, Úc, Bỉ, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cộng hòa Séc, Đan Mạch, Estonia, Phần Lan, Pháp, Đức, Hy Lạp, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Ý, Nhật Bản, Hàn Quốc, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Hà Lan, New Zealand, Na Uy, Ba Lan, Bồ Đào Nha, Cộng hòa Slovakia, Slovenia, Tây Ban Nha, Thụy Điển, Thụy Sĩ, Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ, Anh và Mỹ.

EIA cho biết, tổng số LDV sẽ tăng lên ở các nước ngoài OECD. Lý do được đưa ra đó là dự đoán dân số của các quốc gia không thuộc OECD sẽ tăng gấp 3 lần tỷ lệ tăng dân số của các quốc gia OECD và tỷ lệ cơ giới hóa ngoài OECD sẽ tăng từ 92 xe/nghìn người lên 173 xe/nghìn người trong giai đoạn 2020-2050.

Tỷ lệ cơ giới hóa của các nước OECD vẫn vào khoảng 530 phương tiện trên một nghìn người trong giai đoạn dự báo. Do sự gia tăng dân số và tỷ lệ cơ giới hóa này, dự đoán số lượng LDV ở các nước không thuộc OECD sẽ vượt qua số lượng ở các nước OECD vào năm 2025.

Vì vậy, sự phân chia tăng trưởng xe điện xảy ra giữa các nước OECD và các nước không thuộc OECD, vì nó dự báo tỷ lệ xe điện sẽ đạt 34% ở các nước OECD và 28% ở các nước ngoài OECD vào năm 2050.

Mặc dù LDV chạy động cơ đốt trong thông thường đạt đỉnh vào năm 2023 đối với các nước OECD, tốc độ tăng trưởng nhanh hơn trong nhóm không thuộc OECD dẫn đến gần 2/3 số xe điện hạng nhẹ ở các nước ngoài OECD vào năm 2050.

Trong khi đó, Trung Quốc, một quốc gia không thuộc OECD cho đến nay là thị trường ô tô điện lớn nhất về số lượng bán ra, đã rơi khỏi top 10 vào năm 2020 với ô tô điện chiếm 6,2% doanh số bán xe du lịch tại nước này.

Na Uy, một thành viên của OECD, hiện có nhiều ô tô điện trên đầu người hơn bất kỳ quốc gia nào khác. Xe điện chiếm gần 75% doanh số bán ô tô mới vào năm 2020.



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